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El año 2025 se perfila como un período lleno de desafíos y transformaciones para la industria del petróleo y gas. Según un informe reciente de Wood Mackenzie, las tensiones geopolíticas y los cambios en la oferta y la demanda global generan señales mixtas, especialmente en el segmento upstream.
La consultora identificó cinco tendencias clave que influirán en el sector este año. Entre ellas se destacan:
- Optimización operativa con inteligencia artificial (IA):
Las empresas apuestan cada vez más por herramientas tecnológicas avanzadas como la IA para reducir costos y maximizar la producción y los ingresos. - Crecimiento en América Latina y otras regiones:
Se espera un aumento en la producción de líquidos fuera de la cuenca del Pérmico en Estados Unidos, con América Latina como uno de los motores principales, añadiendo alrededor de 400.000 barriles diarios (b/d). - Proyectos estratégicos de GNL (gas natural licuado):
Aunque 2025 será un año tranquilo en cuanto a decisiones finales de inversión en GNL debido a la presión en costos y restricciones del sector, se prevé que los proyectos avancen gradualmente, especialmente en mercados asiáticos. - Exploración convencional y acuerdos estratégicos:
Habrá un resurgimiento de la exploración tradicional con una mayor disciplina de capital, además de fusiones y adquisiciones para garantizar la longevidad de las carteras de las empresas. - Oportunidades en cuencas no convencionales:
Regiones como Jafurah (Arabia Saudita), Vaca Muerta (Argentina) y Argelia se consolidan como áreas clave para el desarrollo de proyectos no convencionales.
Crecimiento en las Américas
A pesar de los desafíos, la producción en América se mantendrá sólida, con un aumento de aproximadamente 1 millón de b/d, similar al de 2024. La producción en el Golfo de México será clave, alcanzando una capacidad de más de 300.000 b/d por primera vez.
Actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones
El sector continuará con una actividad moderada de consolidaciones, aunque es improbable que supere el promedio de 130.000 millones de dólares anuales de la última década. Las empresas buscarán fortalecer sus carteras con adquisiciones estratégicas, sobre todo en mercados fuera del Pérmico y en regiones clave como Oriente Medio y Asia.
Un futuro con incertidumbre pero lleno de oportunidades
Robert Clarke, vicepresidente de investigación de Wood Mackenzie, destacó que la inversión en el sector upstream sigue ganando confianza, aunque estará condicionada por factores macroeconómicos a corto plazo. Las empresas petroleras y los inversores mantendrán el foco en reservas y longevidad de los recursos, adaptándose a un entorno cambiante con decisiones estratégicas.
Con una combinación de innovación, expansión en mercados clave y adaptaciones frente a los retos globales, 2025 promete ser un año determinante para el futuro del petróleo y gas.
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